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OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
TCEHY · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-TCEHY · JULY 29, 2026
SIGNATURE QUANT PROFILE · COMMUNICATION SERVICES
Tencent ADR TCEHY · NYSE
Communication Services · USD listed
OWL VERDICT
BULL CASE FAVORED
Grade A · Score 89 / 100
LAST PRICE
$57.75
▲ +0.9%
OWL FAIR VALUE
$80.04
+38.6% vs price
STREET TARGET
$97.61
+69.0% · 3 analysts
MARKET CAP
$519.8B
div yield 8.32%
P/E · P/B
16.0 · 3.1
ROE 19.5%
52-WEEK RANGE
52.8–87.7
now at 14th pctile
Investment Summary
01
Quality vs. price, measured. Quality axes (ROE 19.5%, op. margin 33.1%) score 40/40; value axes (P/E 16.0x, P/B 3.13x, EV/EBITDA, dividend) score 69/80. The composite 89/100 (grade A) is that arithmetic.
02
No tracked 13F position. None of the 9 tracked managers reports TCEHY this quarter — see p.3 for each book's style lens.
03
3 of 5 value strategies pass. Greenblatt Magic Formula, Prasad Deep Value, Simple DCF admit TCEHY; the other 2 reject on their coded rules (details p.2).
04
What would change this report. Model fair value is $80.04 (+38.6% vs price); The verdict changes only when the data changes — screening reruns every weekday.
THE OWL VIEW
The measurements favor the bull case: composite 89/100 — 3/5 value screens pass. We grade TCEHY A; the framework finds the data acceptable on both quality and price today.
This report aggregates Owl Labs quant modules — 7-axis screener, 5 value strategies, 9 guru 13F filings, fair-value model, technical signals and news. All figures are measured from data sources as of the date above; sentences are rule-based templates (no generative claims). The score is a fitness test of reported fundamentals against today’s price — a screener, not a forecast; forward growth is not part of the score. Not investment advice.
TCEHY · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-TCEHY · JULY 29, 2026
Valuation — Five Value Disciplines
SECTION 02 OF 5
Each strategy is a mechanical screen coded from the discipline's published rules — a stock either passes or it does not. TCEHY passes 3 of 5. Verdicts are computed, not opined; the measured inputs are shown for audit.
STRATEGY
MECHANICAL CRITERIA
VERDICT
MEASURED INPUTS
Graham Defensive
Low P/E × low P/B composite screen
FAIL
P/E×P/B 50
Greenblatt Magic Formula
Earnings yield + return on capital, top 30%
PASS
E/P 6.2% · ROE 19.5%
Prasad Deep Value
Low P/B, low leverage, positive earnings
PASS
P/B 3.13x
Simple DCF
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
TCEHY · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-TCEHY · JULY 29, 2026
Smart-Money Positioning — 9 Tracked Managers
SECTION 03 OF 5
Holdings from SEC 13F filings (disclosed ~45 days after quarter end). Weight = % of the manager's disclosed US long book. 0 of 9 managers hold TCEHY. These are filed positions — not the managers' opinions on this stock.
MANAGER
FUND
STYLE
WEIGHT
ACTION
STYLE LENS (RULE-BASED)
Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Value
—
NO POSITION
Value lens: P/E 16.0x · P/B 3.13x
Ray Dalio
Bridgewater Associates, LP
Macro
—
NO POSITION
Macro fund — 13F shows only part of book
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
TCEHY · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-TCEHY · JULY 29, 2026
Tape, Catalysts & Risk Register
SECTION 04 OF 5
Technical Readout as of Tue Jul 28
RSI (14d)50.1 — neutral
MACD vs signal-0.26 below
MA20 / MA60$58.14 / $57.73
Cross stateNone
Distance to 52-wk high-34.1%
52-wk range position14th percentile
Day change+0.9%
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
TCEHY · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-TCEHY · JULY 29, 2026
Financial Record & Final Judgment
SECTION 05 OF 5
FISCAL YEAR
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Revenue
$609.0B
$660.3B
$751.8B
Operating income
$165.7B
$208.8B
$248.8B
Net income
$115.2B
$194.1B
$224.8B
Op. margin
27.2%
31.6%
33.1%
Net margin
18.9%
29.4%
29.9%
ROE
14.2%
19.9%
19.5%
20/20
Op. margin
20/20
EV/EBIT
20/20
Dividend
20/20
Attention
8/20
Composite (incl. adj.)89 / 100 · A
US universe rank#18 of 623 · top 3%
Value screens passed3 / 5
52-wk range position14%
Next earningsTBA
Axis weights are proprietary; axis names and raw scores are disclosed. Attention measures news & search interest — a crowding proxy, not a quality signal.
One-line read: Communication Services name scoring 89/100 (grade A), passing 3/5 value strategies.
Conservative discounted cash flow vs price
PASS
Model $80.04 vs $57.75
Damodaran Relative
Multiples vs sector median, growth-adjusted
FAIL
P/E 16.0x · rev +13.9%
Fair-Value Bridge method blend, measured
Growth/quality-adjusted PER (w25%)$84.4
Justified PBR (ROE-based) (w25%)$40.56
Analyst target (3) (w50%)$97.61
Owl fair value / share$80.04
Upside at $57.75+38.6%
MODEL INPUTS (DISCLOSED)
P/E · P/B16.0x · 3.13x
ROE (latest FY)19.5%
ROE (3-yr avg, normalized)17.9%
Revenue CAGR (2-yr)+11.1%
Band: CHEAP · justified-multiple model with quality/growth adjustments — an estimate, not a promise.
Sensitivity value per share
EARNINGS ↓ / MULTIPLE →
-10%
base
+10%
-10%
$68.36
$75.96
$83.55
base (measured)
$75.96
$84.4
$92.84
+10%
$83.55
$92.84
$102.12
Simple sensitivity (reference): ±10% arithmetic on the measured P/E-method value — earnings basis × fair multiple. Not a forecast; no projected figures are used.
Read this like a memo: the model says $80.04 and the Street consensus says $97.61 (3 analysts). The gap is the assumption set — both are computed from disclosed inputs above; underwrite the difference yourself.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
No tracked manager reports a US-listed long position in TCEHY this quarter. Absence in 13F reflects these nine books only, not the whole market.
13F filings disclose US-listed long positions ~45 days after quarter end. "Style lens" lines relate this stock to each investor's public style using measured metrics only — they are not the managers' actual views.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
Measured state: RSI 50.1 (neutral), MACD below its signal, no MA cross is active. Read the tape as one input, not a verdict.
Catalyst Calendar
No confirmed earnings date in calendar
Every weekday — quant screening refreshscore update
Quarterly — 13F filing window (~45d after quarter end)13F refresh
Forward Signals (unscored) consensus data · never scored
Street target consensus$97.61 (3)
Implied upside vs price+69.0%
Next-quarter EPS estimate—
Next-quarter revenue estimate—
Shown for context, never scored: the composite grades only reported fundamentals. Forward numbers are third-party consensus — treat them as the market’s assumption set, not ours.
Risk Register
HIGH
Drawdown state. Price sits -34.1% below the 52-week high (14th percentile of the range) — measured tape, not a judgment of cause.
MEDIUM
Yield sanity check. Dividend yield 8.3% is unusually high — verify sustainability against payout capacity before treating it as income.
WHAT THE BEARS MUST PROVE / WHAT THE BULLS MUST PROVE
Bears: that the measured quality base cracks — ROE 19.5% and op. margin 33.1% are what the score leans on. Bulls: less on price — the model's $80.04 sits +38.6% above; they must show the measured fundamentals hold through the next filings.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
Source: company filings (annual). Only reported fiscal years are shown — no forward estimates. ROE 19.5% · Net margin 29.9%.
News Digest RSS · external media
07/22 — XY Capital Ltd Raises Position in Tencent Music Entertainment Group Sponsored ADR $TME (MarketBeat)
07/22 — Hsbc Holdings PLC Reduces Holdings in Tencent Music Entertainment Group Sponsored ADR $TME (MarketBeat)
07/20 — Cantillon Capital Management LLC Cuts Stock Position in Tencent Music Entertainment Group Sponsored ADR $TME (MarketBeat)
07/20 — Tencent Music Entertainment Group Sponsored ADR $TME Stock Holdings Increased by Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC (MarketBeat)
External media — accuracy rests with each outlet.
Methodology & how to use
Every number in this report is measured — pulled from the screener database, SEC EDGAR 13F filings, DART disclosures, company financials, or deterministic models (justified-multiple fair value). Sentences are rule-based templates bound to those numbers; nothing is generated, so nothing is hallucinated. Axis weights and the sector adjustment are proprietary; axis names, raw scores, and every input above are disclosed for audit.
Known limits, stated plainly. ① Backward-looking — the score grades reported fundamentals and today's price; future inflections (a cycle turn, next year's earnings) are not scored and appear only as unscored context (street target, catalysts). A low score can mean "great business, full price". ② The composite is this framework's ranking, not an absolute quality of the company. ③ 13F covers US-listed holdings only. Use the report as a screener; pair it with your own forward and qualitative work before acting.
A
BULL CASE FAVORED
Final judgment. TCEHY scores 89/100 (grade A) — rank #18 of 623 in the US universe. Axis split: quality 40/40 · value 69/80 · attention 8/20. Model fair value $80.04 (+38.6% vs price). The verdict changes only when the data changes.
Grade rubric: A 85+ (top conviction basket) · B 65+ (sound, price matters) · C 45+ (no rush) · D below (weak case). The verdict changes only when the data changes — next screening runs every weekday.
Owl Labs is an online information provider. This document is compiled from public data sources (exchange quotes, SEC EDGAR 13F, DART filings, company financials, news RSS) and Owl Labs quantitative models. It is not investment advice, not a solicitation to trade any security, and past data does not guarantee future results. Figures may differ from real-time values. Final investment decisions and responsibility rest solely with the investor. Unauthorized redistribution prohibited.
