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OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
AFL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-AFL · JULY 29, 2026
SIGNATURE QUANT PROFILE · FINANCIALS
Aflac AFL · NYSE
Financials · USD listed
OWL VERDICT
BALANCED CASE
Grade B · Score 79 / 100
LAST PRICE
$129.55
▲ +2.4%
OWL FAIR VALUE
$101.48
-21.7% vs price
STREET TARGET
$112.43
-13.2% · 14 analysts
MARKET CAP
$65.9B
div yield 1.86%
P/E · P/B
14.5 · 2.2
ROE 12.4%
52-WEEK RANGE
97.0–129.6
now at 100th pctile
Investment Summary
01
Quality vs. price, measured. Quality axes (ROE 12.4%, op. margin 27.4%) score 30/40; value axes (P/E 14.5x, P/B 2.21x, EV/EBITDA, dividend) score 44/80. The composite 79/100 (grade B) is that arithmetic.
02
No tracked 13F position. None of the 9 tracked managers reports AFL this quarter — see p.3 for each book's style lens.
03
1 of 5 value strategies pass. Damodaran Relative admits AFL; the other 4 reject on their coded rules (details p.2).
04
What would change this report. Model fair value is $101.48 (-21.7% vs price); The verdict changes only when the data changes — screening reruns every weekday.
THE OWL VIEW
The data reads sound but not one-sided: composite 79/100 — 1/5 value screens pass. We grade AFL B; the framework says the case is solid and price is the swing variable.
This report aggregates Owl Labs quant modules — 7-axis screener, 5 value strategies, 9 guru 13F filings, fair-value model, technical signals and news. All figures are measured from data sources as of the date above; sentences are rule-based templates (no generative claims). The score is a fitness test of reported fundamentals against today’s price — a screener, not a forecast; forward growth is not part of the score. Not investment advice.
AFL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-AFL · JULY 29, 2026
Valuation — Five Value Disciplines
SECTION 02 OF 5
Each strategy is a mechanical screen coded from the discipline's published rules — a stock either passes or it does not. AFL passes 1 of 5. Verdicts are computed, not opined; the measured inputs are shown for audit.
STRATEGY
MECHANICAL CRITERIA
VERDICT
MEASURED INPUTS
Graham Defensive
Low P/E × low P/B composite screen
FAIL
P/E×P/B 32
Greenblatt Magic Formula
Earnings yield + return on capital, top 30%
FAIL
E/P 6.9% · ROE 12.4%
Prasad Deep Value
Low P/B, low leverage, positive earnings
FAIL
P/B 2.21x
Simple DCF
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
AFL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-AFL · JULY 29, 2026
Smart-Money Positioning — 9 Tracked Managers
SECTION 03 OF 5
Holdings from SEC 13F filings (disclosed ~45 days after quarter end). Weight = % of the manager's disclosed US long book. 0 of 9 managers hold AFL. These are filed positions — not the managers' opinions on this stock.
MANAGER
FUND
STYLE
WEIGHT
ACTION
STYLE LENS (RULE-BASED)
Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Value
—
NO POSITION
Value lens: P/E 14.5x · P/B 2.21x
Ray Dalio
Bridgewater Associates, LP
Macro
—
NO POSITION
Macro fund — 13F shows only part of book
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
AFL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-AFL · JULY 29, 2026
Tape, Catalysts & Risk Register
SECTION 04 OF 5
Technical Readout as of Tue Jul 28
RSI (14d)74.7 — overbought
MACD vs signal+0.43 above
MA20 / MA60$122.77 / $118.28
Cross stateNone
Distance to 52-wk high-0.1%
52-wk range position100th percentile
Day change+2.4%
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
AFL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-AFL · JULY 29, 2026
Financial Record & Final Judgment
SECTION 05 OF 5
FISCAL YEAR
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Revenue
$18.8B
$19.1B
$17.4B
Operating income
$5.5B
$6.6B
$4.8B
Net income
$4.7B
$5.4B
$3.6B
Op. margin
29.0%
34.6%
27.4%
Net margin
24.7%
28.5%
21.0%
ROE
21.2%
20.9%
12.4%
10/20
Op. margin
20/20
EV/EBIT
2/20
Dividend
11/20
Attention
13/20
Composite (incl. adj.)79 / 100 · B
US universe rank#93 of 623 · top 15%
Value screens passed1 / 5
52-wk range position100%
Next earningsTBA
Axis weights are proprietary; axis names and raw scores are disclosed. Attention measures news & search interest — a crowding proxy, not a quality signal.
One-line read: Financials name scoring 79/100 (grade B), passing 1/5 value strategies.
Conservative discounted cash flow vs price
FAIL
Model $101.48 vs $129.55
Damodaran Relative
Multiples vs sector median, growth-adjusted
PASS
P/E 14.5x · rev -9.3%
Fair-Value Bridge method blend, measured
Growth/quality-adjusted PER (w20%)$82.2
Justified PBR (ROE-based) (w20%)$87.93
Analyst target (14) (w60%)$112.43
Owl fair value / share$101.48
Upside at $129.55-21.7%
MODEL INPUTS (DISCLOSED)
P/E · P/B14.5x · 2.21x
ROE (latest FY)12.4%
ROE (3-yr avg, normalized)18.1%
Revenue CAGR (2-yr)-4.0%
Band: EXPENSIVE · justified-multiple model with quality/growth adjustments — an estimate, not a promise.
Sensitivity value per share
EARNINGS ↓ / MULTIPLE →
-10%
base
+10%
-10%
$66.59
$73.98
$81.38
base (measured)
$73.98
$82.2
$90.42
+10%
$81.38
$90.42
$99.47
Simple sensitivity (reference): ±10% arithmetic on the measured P/E-method value — earnings basis × fair multiple. Not a forecast; no projected figures are used.
Read this like a memo: the model says $101.48 and the Street consensus says $112.43 (14 analysts). The gap is the assumption set — both are computed from disclosed inputs above; underwrite the difference yourself.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
No tracked manager reports a US-listed long position in AFL this quarter. Absence in 13F reflects these nine books only, not the whole market.
13F filings disclose US-listed long positions ~45 days after quarter end. "Style lens" lines relate this stock to each investor's public style using measured metrics only — they are not the managers' actual views.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
Measured state: RSI 74.7 (overbought), MACD above its signal, no MA cross is active. Read the tape as one input, not a verdict.
Catalyst Calendar
No confirmed earnings date in calendar
Every weekday — quant screening refreshscore update
Quarterly — 13F filing window (~45d after quarter end)13F refresh
Forward Signals (unscored) consensus data · never scored
Street target consensus$112.43 (14)
Implied upside vs price-13.2%
Next-quarter EPS estimate—
Next-quarter revenue estimate—
Shown for context, never scored: the composite grades only reported fundamentals. Forward numbers are third-party consensus — treat them as the market’s assumption set, not ours.
Risk Register
MODEL
Valuation gap. Price sits -21.7% vs model fair value $101.48 — price, not quality, is the exposed variable.
WHAT THE BEARS MUST PROVE / WHAT THE BULLS MUST PROVE
Bears: that the measured quality base cracks — ROE 12.4% and op. margin 27.4% are what the score leans on. Bulls: that the premium is earned — price sits 21.7% above the model's $101.48; measured growth (revenue YoY -9.3%) has to carry that gap.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
07/27 — Aflac stock hits all-time high at 126.05 USD (Investing.com)
07/27 — Aflac (NYSE:AFL) Hits New 52-Week High - Here's What Happened (MarketBeat)
External media — accuracy rests with each outlet.
Methodology & how to use
Every number in this report is measured — pulled from the screener database, SEC EDGAR 13F filings, DART disclosures, company financials, or deterministic models (justified-multiple fair value). Sentences are rule-based templates bound to those numbers; nothing is generated, so nothing is hallucinated. Axis weights and the sector adjustment are proprietary; axis names, raw scores, and every input above are disclosed for audit.
Known limits, stated plainly. ① Backward-looking — the score grades reported fundamentals and today's price; future inflections (a cycle turn, next year's earnings) are not scored and appear only as unscored context (street target, catalysts). A low score can mean "great business, full price". ② The composite is this framework's ranking, not an absolute quality of the company. ③ 13F covers US-listed holdings only. Use the report as a screener; pair it with your own forward and qualitative work before acting.
B
BALANCED CASE
Final judgment. AFL scores 79/100 (grade B) — rank #93 of 623 in the US universe. Axis split: quality 30/40 · value 44/80 · attention 13/20. Model fair value $101.48 (-21.7% vs price). The verdict changes only when the data changes.
Grade rubric: A 85+ (top conviction basket) · B 65+ (sound, price matters) · C 45+ (no rush) · D below (weak case). The verdict changes only when the data changes — next screening runs every weekday.
Owl Labs is an online information provider. This document is compiled from public data sources (exchange quotes, SEC EDGAR 13F, DART filings, company financials, news RSS) and Owl Labs quantitative models. It is not investment advice, not a solicitation to trade any security, and past data does not guarantee future results. Figures may differ from real-time values. Final investment decisions and responsibility rest solely with the investor. Unauthorized redistribution prohibited.
