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OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
ADP · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ADP · JULY 29, 2026
SIGNATURE QUANT PROFILE · INDUSTRIALS
Automatic Data Processing ADP · NASDAQ
Industrials · USD listed
OWL VERDICT
BALANCED CASE
Grade B · Score 82 / 100
⚠ Failed primary financial screen
LAST PRICE
$264.17
▲ +3.6%
OWL FAIR VALUE
$258
-2.3% vs price
STREET TARGET
$246.8
-6.6% · 15 analysts
MARKET CAP
$105.6B
div yield 2.54%
P/E · P/B
23.8 · 16.7
ROE 65.9%
52-WEEK RANGE
188.2–316.0
now at 59th pctile
Investment Summary
01
Quality vs. price, measured. Quality axes (ROE 65.9%, op. margin 26.3%) score 40/40; value axes (P/E 23.8x, P/B 16.67x, EV/EBITDA, dividend) score 37/80. The composite 82/100 (grade B) is that arithmetic.
02
No tracked 13F position. None of the 9 tracked managers reports ADP this quarter — see p.3 for each book's style lens.
03
0 of 5 value strategies pass. No mechanical screen admits ADP; the other 5 reject on their coded rules (details p.2).
04
What would change this report. Model fair value is $258 (-2.3% vs price); The verdict changes only when the data changes — screening reruns every weekday.
THE OWL VIEW
The data reads sound but not one-sided: composite 82/100 — 0/5 value screens pass. We grade ADP B; the framework says the case is solid and price is the swing variable.
This report aggregates Owl Labs quant modules — 7-axis screener, 5 value strategies, 9 guru 13F filings, fair-value model, technical signals and news. All figures are measured from data sources as of the date above; sentences are rule-based templates (no generative claims). The score is a fitness test of reported fundamentals against today’s price — a screener, not a forecast; forward growth is not part of the score. Not investment advice.
ADP · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ADP · JULY 29, 2026
Valuation — Five Value Disciplines
SECTION 02 OF 5
Each strategy is a mechanical screen coded from the discipline's published rules — a stock either passes or it does not. ADP passes 0 of 5. Verdicts are computed, not opined; the measured inputs are shown for audit.
STRATEGY
MECHANICAL CRITERIA
VERDICT
MEASURED INPUTS
Graham Defensive
Low P/E × low P/B composite screen
FAIL
P/E×P/B 397
Greenblatt Magic Formula
Earnings yield + return on capital, top 30%
FAIL
E/P 4.2% · ROE 65.9%
Prasad Deep Value
Low P/B, low leverage, positive earnings
FAIL
P/B 16.67x
Simple DCF
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
ADP · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ADP · JULY 29, 2026
Smart-Money Positioning — 9 Tracked Managers
SECTION 03 OF 5
Holdings from SEC 13F filings (disclosed ~45 days after quarter end). Weight = % of the manager's disclosed US long book. 0 of 9 managers hold ADP. These are filed positions — not the managers' opinions on this stock.
MANAGER
FUND
STYLE
WEIGHT
ACTION
STYLE LENS (RULE-BASED)
Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Value
—
NO POSITION
Value lens: P/E 23.8x · P/B 16.67x
Ray Dalio
Bridgewater Associates, LP
Macro
—
NO POSITION
Macro fund — 13F shows only part of book
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
ADP · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ADP · JULY 29, 2026
Tape, Catalysts & Risk Register
SECTION 04 OF 5
Technical Readout as of Tue Jul 28
RSI (14d)69.2 — neutral
MACD vs signal+0.50 above
MA20 / MA60$246.25 / $229.02
Cross stateNone
Distance to 52-wk high-16.4%
52-wk range position59th percentile
Day change+3.6%
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
ADP · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ADP · JULY 29, 2026
Financial Record & Final Judgment
SECTION 05 OF 5
FISCAL YEAR
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Revenue
$18.0B
$19.2B
$20.6B
Operating income
$4.5B
$4.9B
$5.4B
Net income
$3.4B
$3.8B
$4.1B
Op. margin
25.0%
25.8%
26.3%
Net margin
18.9%
19.5%
19.8%
ROE
97.2%
82.5%
65.9%
20/20
Op. margin
20/20
EV/EBIT
3/20
Dividend
16/20
Attention
17/20
Composite (incl. adj.)82 / 100 · B
US universe rank#66 of 623 · top 11%
Value screens passed0 / 5
52-wk range position59%
Next earningsTBA
Axis weights are proprietary; axis names and raw scores are disclosed. Attention measures news & search interest — a crowding proxy, not a quality signal.
One-line read: Industrials name scoring 82/100 (grade B), passing 0/5 value strategies.
Conservative discounted cash flow vs price
FAIL
Model $258 vs $264.17
Damodaran Relative
Multiples vs sector median, growth-adjusted
FAIL
P/E 23.8x · rev +7.1%
Fair-Value Bridge method blend, measured
Growth/quality-adjusted PER (w20%)$302.8
Analyst target (15) (w80%)$246.8
Owl fair value / share$258
Upside at $264.17-2.3%
MODEL INPUTS (DISCLOSED)
P/E · P/B23.8x · 16.67x
ROE (latest FY)65.9%
ROE (3-yr avg, normalized)81.9%
Revenue CAGR (2-yr)+6.8%
Band: FAIR · justified-multiple model with quality/growth adjustments — an estimate, not a promise.
Sensitivity value per share
EARNINGS ↓ / MULTIPLE →
-10%
base
+10%
-10%
$245.27
$272.52
$299.77
base (measured)
$272.52
$302.8
$333.08
+10%
$299.77
$333.08
$366.39
Simple sensitivity (reference): ±10% arithmetic on the measured P/E-method value — earnings basis × fair multiple. Not a forecast; no projected figures are used.
Read this like a memo: the model says $258 and the Street consensus says $246.8 (15 analysts). The gap is the assumption set — both are computed from disclosed inputs above; underwrite the difference yourself.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
No tracked manager reports a US-listed long position in ADP this quarter. Absence in 13F reflects these nine books only, not the whole market.
13F filings disclose US-listed long positions ~45 days after quarter end. "Style lens" lines relate this stock to each investor's public style using measured metrics only — they are not the managers' actual views.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
Measured state: RSI 69.2 (neutral), MACD above its signal, no MA cross is active. Read the tape as one input, not a verdict.
Catalyst Calendar
No confirmed earnings date in calendar
Every weekday — quant screening refreshscore update
Quarterly — 13F filing window (~45d after quarter end)13F refresh
Forward Signals (unscored) consensus data · never scored
Street target consensus$246.8 (15)
Implied upside vs price-6.6%
Next-quarter EPS estimate—
Next-quarter revenue estimate—
Shown for context, never scored: the composite grades only reported fundamentals. Forward numbers are third-party consensus — treat them as the market’s assumption set, not ours.
Risk Register
HIGH
Failed primary financial screen. Debt/liquidity gate not cleared — the composite grade carries a structural caveat (cover page).
QUANT
Crowding. Attention axis 17/20 — elevated news & search interest (a crowding proxy, not a quality signal).
MEDIUM
Drawdown state. Price sits -16.4% below the 52-week high (59th percentile of the range) — measured tape, not a judgment of cause.
WHAT THE BEARS MUST PROVE / WHAT THE BULLS MUST PROVE
Bears: that the measured quality base cracks — ROE 65.9% and op. margin 26.3% are what the score leans on. Bulls: that the premium is earned — price sits 2.3% above the model's $258; measured growth (revenue YoY +7.1%) has to carry that gap.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
Source: company filings (annual). Only reported fiscal years are shown — no forward estimates. ROE 65.9% · Net margin 19.8%.
News Digest RSS · external media
07/28 — A Look at Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) After 3.6% Gain -- GF Value $305.70 vs Price $264.17 (GuruFocus)
07/28 — Automatic Data Processing Inc. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day (MarketWatch)
07/28 — Why Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Stock Is Up Today (Quiver Quantitative)
07/28 — Does ADP’s New Chief AI Legal Role Quietly Redefine Its Compliance Edge for Investors (ADP)? (simplywall.st)
External media — accuracy rests with each outlet.
Methodology & how to use
Every number in this report is measured — pulled from the screener database, SEC EDGAR 13F filings, DART disclosures, company financials, or deterministic models (justified-multiple fair value). Sentences are rule-based templates bound to those numbers; nothing is generated, so nothing is hallucinated. Axis weights and the sector adjustment are proprietary; axis names, raw scores, and every input above are disclosed for audit.
Known limits, stated plainly. ① Backward-looking — the score grades reported fundamentals and today's price; future inflections (a cycle turn, next year's earnings) are not scored and appear only as unscored context (street target, catalysts). A low score can mean "great business, full price". ② The composite is this framework's ranking, not an absolute quality of the company. ③ 13F covers US-listed holdings only. Use the report as a screener; pair it with your own forward and qualitative work before acting.
B
BALANCED CASE
Final judgment. ADP scores 82/100 (grade B) — rank #66 of 623 in the US universe. Axis split: quality 40/40 · value 37/80 · attention 17/20. Model fair value $258 (-2.3% vs price). The verdict changes only when the data changes.
Grade rubric: A 85+ (top conviction basket) · B 65+ (sound, price matters) · C 45+ (no rush) · D below (weak case). The verdict changes only when the data changes — next screening runs every weekday.
Owl Labs is an online information provider. This document is compiled from public data sources (exchange quotes, SEC EDGAR 13F, DART filings, company financials, news RSS) and Owl Labs quantitative models. It is not investment advice, not a solicitation to trade any security, and past data does not guarantee future results. Figures may differ from real-time values. Final investment decisions and responsibility rest solely with the investor. Unauthorized redistribution prohibited.
