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OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
ACGL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ACGL · JULY 29, 2026
SIGNATURE QUANT PROFILE · FINANCIALS
Arch Capital Group ACGL · NASDAQ
Financials · USD listed
OWL VERDICT
BULL CASE FAVORED
Grade A · Score 87 / 100
LAST PRICE
$106.48
▲ +2.5%
OWL FAIR VALUE
$131.1
+23.1% vs price
STREET TARGET
$108.71
+2.1% · 19 analysts
MARKET CAP
$37.2B
div yield 0.00%
P/E · P/B
8.0 · 1.6
ROE 18.2%
52-WEEK RANGE
82.5–107.1
now at 98th pctile
Investment Summary
01
Quality vs. price, measured. Quality axes (ROE 18.2%, op. margin 26.6%) score 40/40; value axes (P/E 8.0x, P/B 1.60x, EV/EBITDA, dividend) score 39/80. The composite 87/100 (grade A) is that arithmetic.
02
No tracked 13F position. None of the 9 tracked managers reports ACGL this quarter — see p.3 for each book's style lens.
03
2 of 5 value strategies pass. Greenblatt Magic Formula, Damodaran Relative admit ACGL; the other 3 reject on their coded rules (details p.2).
04
What would change this report. Model fair value is $131.1 (+23.1% vs price); The verdict changes only when the data changes — screening reruns every weekday.
THE OWL VIEW
The measurements favor the bull case: composite 87/100 — 2/5 value screens pass. We grade ACGL A; the framework finds the data acceptable on both quality and price today.
This report aggregates Owl Labs quant modules — 7-axis screener, 5 value strategies, 9 guru 13F filings, fair-value model, technical signals and news. All figures are measured from data sources as of the date above; sentences are rule-based templates (no generative claims). The score is a fitness test of reported fundamentals against today’s price — a screener, not a forecast; forward growth is not part of the score. Not investment advice.
ACGL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ACGL · JULY 29, 2026
Valuation — Five Value Disciplines
SECTION 02 OF 5
Each strategy is a mechanical screen coded from the discipline's published rules — a stock either passes or it does not. ACGL passes 2 of 5. Verdicts are computed, not opined; the measured inputs are shown for audit.
STRATEGY
MECHANICAL CRITERIA
VERDICT
MEASURED INPUTS
Graham Defensive
Low P/E × low P/B composite screen
FAIL
P/E×P/B 13
Greenblatt Magic Formula
Earnings yield + return on capital, top 30%
PASS
E/P 12.5% · ROE 18.2%
Prasad Deep Value
Low P/B, low leverage, positive earnings
FAIL
P/B 1.60x
Simple DCF
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
ACGL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ACGL · JULY 29, 2026
Smart-Money Positioning — 9 Tracked Managers
SECTION 03 OF 5
Holdings from SEC 13F filings (disclosed ~45 days after quarter end). Weight = % of the manager's disclosed US long book. 0 of 9 managers hold ACGL. These are filed positions — not the managers' opinions on this stock.
MANAGER
FUND
STYLE
WEIGHT
ACTION
STYLE LENS (RULE-BASED)
Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Value
—
NO POSITION
Value lens: P/E 8.0x · P/B 1.60x
Ray Dalio
Bridgewater Associates, LP
Macro
—
NO POSITION
Macro fund — 13F shows only part of book
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
ACGL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ACGL · JULY 29, 2026
Tape, Catalysts & Risk Register
SECTION 04 OF 5
Technical Readout as of Tue Jul 28
RSI (14d)67.5 — neutral
MACD vs signal+0.20 above
MA20 / MA60$101.33 / $95.74
Cross stateNone
Distance to 52-wk high-0.6%
52-wk range position98th percentile
Day change+2.5%
OWL LABS EQUITY RESEARCH
ACGL · SIGNATURE REPORT OWL-260729-ACGL · JULY 29, 2026
Financial Record & Final Judgment
SECTION 05 OF 5
FISCAL YEAR
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
Revenue
$13.3B
$16.9B
$19.3B
Operating income
$3.5B
$4.6B
$5.1B
Net income
$4.4B
$4.3B
$4.4B
Op. margin
26.5%
27.3%
26.6%
Net margin
33.4%
25.5%
22.8%
ROE
24.2%
20.7%
18.2%
20/20
Op. margin
20/20
EV/EBIT
5/20
Dividend
3/20
Attention
13/20
Composite (incl. adj.)87 / 100 · A
US universe rank#34 of 623 · top 5%
Value screens passed2 / 5
52-wk range position98%
Next earningsTBA
Axis weights are proprietary; axis names and raw scores are disclosed. Attention measures news & search interest — a crowding proxy, not a quality signal.
One-line read: Financials name scoring 87/100 (grade A), passing 2/5 value strategies.
Conservative discounted cash flow vs price
FAIL
Model $131.1 vs $106.48
Damodaran Relative
Multiples vs sector median, growth-adjusted
PASS
P/E 8.0x · rev +14.0%
Fair-Value Bridge method blend, measured
Growth/quality-adjusted PER (w17%)$251.95
Justified PBR (ROE-based) (w17%)$99.82
Analyst target (19) (w67%)$108.71
Owl fair value / share$131.1
Upside at $106.48+23.1%
MODEL INPUTS (DISCLOSED)
P/E · P/B8.0x · 1.60x
ROE (latest FY)18.2%
ROE (3-yr avg, normalized)21.0%
Revenue CAGR (2-yr)+20.5%
Band: CHEAP · justified-multiple model with quality/growth adjustments — an estimate, not a promise.
Sensitivity value per share
EARNINGS ↓ / MULTIPLE →
-10%
base
+10%
-10%
$204.08
$226.76
$249.43
base (measured)
$226.76
$251.95
$277.15
+10%
$249.43
$277.15
$304.86
Simple sensitivity (reference): ±10% arithmetic on the measured P/E-method value — earnings basis × fair multiple. Not a forecast; no projected figures are used.
Read this like a memo: the model says $131.1 and the Street consensus says $108.71 (19 analysts). The gap is the assumption set — both are computed from disclosed inputs above; underwrite the difference yourself.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
No tracked manager reports a US-listed long position in ACGL this quarter. Absence in 13F reflects these nine books only, not the whole market.
13F filings disclose US-listed long positions ~45 days after quarter end. "Style lens" lines relate this stock to each investor's public style using measured metrics only — they are not the managers' actual views.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
Measured state: RSI 67.5 (neutral), MACD above its signal, no MA cross is active. Read the tape as one input, not a verdict.
Catalyst Calendar
No confirmed earnings date in calendar
Every weekday — quant screening refreshscore update
Quarterly — 13F filing window (~45d after quarter end)13F refresh
Forward Signals (unscored) consensus data · never scored
Street target consensus$108.71 (19)
Implied upside vs price+2.1%
Next-quarter EPS estimate—
Next-quarter revenue estimate—
Shown for context, never scored: the composite grades only reported fundamentals. Forward numbers are third-party consensus — treat them as the market’s assumption set, not ours.
Risk Register
LOW
No dividend cushion. Yield 0% — total return depends entirely on price; drawdowns are not buffered by income.
WHAT THE BEARS MUST PROVE / WHAT THE BULLS MUST PROVE
Bears: that the measured quality base cracks — ROE 18.2% and op. margin 26.6% are what the score leans on. Bulls: less on price — the model's $131.1 sits +23.1% above; they must show the measured fundamentals hold through the next filings.
Information only — not investment advice · Sources: exchange data · SEC EDGAR · DART · Owl Labs models
Source: company filings (annual). Only reported fiscal years are shown — no forward estimates. ROE 18.2% · Net margin 22.8%.
News Digest RSS · external media
07/29 — Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Could Be 3% Undervalued Following Mixed Second Quarter Earnings (simplywall.st)
07/29 — Arch Capital Group Q2 Results: EPS beats, sales miss (scanx.trade)
07/28 — Arch Capital Group (NASDAQ:ACGL) Issues Earnings Results (MarketBeat)
07/28 — Arch Capital's quarterly profit hit by softer underwriting, higher catastrophe losses (marketscreener.com)
External media — accuracy rests with each outlet.
Methodology & how to use
Every number in this report is measured — pulled from the screener database, SEC EDGAR 13F filings, DART disclosures, company financials, or deterministic models (justified-multiple fair value). Sentences are rule-based templates bound to those numbers; nothing is generated, so nothing is hallucinated. Axis weights and the sector adjustment are proprietary; axis names, raw scores, and every input above are disclosed for audit.
Known limits, stated plainly. ① Backward-looking — the score grades reported fundamentals and today's price; future inflections (a cycle turn, next year's earnings) are not scored and appear only as unscored context (street target, catalysts). A low score can mean "great business, full price". ② The composite is this framework's ranking, not an absolute quality of the company. ③ 13F covers US-listed holdings only. Use the report as a screener; pair it with your own forward and qualitative work before acting.
A
BULL CASE FAVORED
Final judgment. ACGL scores 87/100 (grade A) — rank #34 of 623 in the US universe. Axis split: quality 40/40 · value 39/80 · attention 13/20. Model fair value $131.1 (+23.1% vs price). The verdict changes only when the data changes.
Grade rubric: A 85+ (top conviction basket) · B 65+ (sound, price matters) · C 45+ (no rush) · D below (weak case). The verdict changes only when the data changes — next screening runs every weekday.
Owl Labs is an online information provider. This document is compiled from public data sources (exchange quotes, SEC EDGAR 13F, DART filings, company financials, news RSS) and Owl Labs quantitative models. It is not investment advice, not a solicitation to trade any security, and past data does not guarantee future results. Figures may differ from real-time values. Final investment decisions and responsibility rest solely with the investor. Unauthorized redistribution prohibited.
